400ppm, a milestone or a nail in our shared coffin? Thoughts on environment.

On May 9th 2013, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere atop Mauna Loa exceeded 400ppm for the first time since recording commenced in 1958.  It was last at this level over 3 million years ago, before our wise human species (Homo sapiens) had evolved.  As the long-term curve of average annual concentration since 1958 shows, not only has CO2 concentration been going steeply upwards, but it has been rising slightly faster in recent years than it was in the 1960s and 1970s.  As NOAA’s data on the Mauna Loa website reveal, the annual rate of increase during 2012 was the second highest ever (1998 was higher), despite the fact that the nations of the world began attempting to do something about this problem in 1992.  Any suggestion that humanity is rising to the challenge is a frantic clutch at gossamer strands so fine that it surpasses all understanding.co2_weekly_mlo NOAA

Daily and weekly mean CO2 concentrations in the air above Mauna Kea for the last 12 months.  I’ve explained why CO2 amount goes down in late summer in Our Dying Planet.  It’s all because of our trees. Figure from NOAA.

 co2_data_mlo April 2013

The full record of CO2 at Mauna Loa since 1958.  Image from NOAA.

I had been trying to find the time to post, having been silent for two weeks, and this news spurred me into action.  Because the Keeling curve (as the 1958 to present track of CO2 is called) tells us clearly that our puny efforts to rein in our production of greenhouse gases continue simply to not measure up to the challenge, and the dire future we could leave to our children is becoming ever more certain.  This led me to ponder the value we place on the natural world – you know the one, the world that provides us with essential goods and services and which sustains our lives.

A long time ago, as a student at University of Hawaii, I learned an important lesson.  I lived in a basement apartment half-way up St. Louis Heights, the slope to the east of the campus.  I watched the building of a new high-rise tower condominium that rose day by day on the hillside a few miles east of me, and I thought about the wonderful views those condo owners were going to have.  Majestic high panoramic views across the developed lowlands to the sea, with at night the lights of Waikiki and Honolulu to the right, Diamond Head rising center left, and the lights of Waialai off to the left.  I even imagined being one day wealthy enough to own such a place.  A year later, I watched the start of a second tower condominium that began to grow in front of the first, now complete with all its units sold.  It was then I learned that it is almost impossible to buy a view, unless you choose to live at the very edge or a long way from other people.  And yet views continue to sell real estate; the phrase ‘location, location, location’ is not entirely about proximity to transport, to restaurants, or to jobs.  And property continues to have a value based partly on non-owned attributes, such as the view beyond its boundaries.

waikiki

Who would not like this outside the living room window?

It’s only much later that I put this Honolulu lesson into a new context – that our obsession with ownership, and our tendency to nimbyism, both derive from the fact that there are things about environment that we truly value even though they are not routinely assigned a dollar value, and, if they are, turn out to be far beyond the capacity of practically any of us to pay.  What I do not know is whether the environments I value most highly are similar to those valued by people who have lived under very different circumstances to me.  However, this detail aside, I think it is clear that there are elements in our environment that all people value, even though ownership of these is either not possible, or not affordable.  There really is a place for the Commons, and moves to carve it up and sell it off reward a few lucky purchasers while reducing general quality of life.

What I just called our obsession with ownership is itself a relatively recent phenomenon.  In older cultures the landscape was shared and ownership was limited to tangible possessions including, sometimes, our houses.  Where landscapes were owned, they were owned by the nobility, who, being noble, felt a certain responsibility to look after the peasants who lived on their land.  In Europe, the early evolution of our modern materialistic consumer society brought increasing formalization of rights of residency, and ownership of ‘real property’ (I do not know why land is more real than a painting by Leonardo da Vinci) became possible, and routine.  Part of the ‘clash’ in the meeting of European explorers with native peoples in distant lands was due to their different understandings of ownership, coupled with the Europeans’ convenient view that ‘savages’ lacking written law, did not ‘own’ anything anyway.  After colonization, gifts or sale of plots of undeveloped land by the Crown, or later by government, became a chief way of placing people on the land and building the agrarian society.  (In Hawaii, this colonization and usurpation process was achieved peacefully by European/American missionaries who married into noble Hawaiian families and inherited their land away from them.)  In any event, throughout the advanced world, people now routinely own land, and, in some jurisdictions, the minerals below it and the air above it.  Land which is not owned by individuals is owned by the state.

There is another thread to this story that also impacts the Commons.  We have always disposed of items we do not want by removing them from our immediate premises.  Some 2000 years ago, in China, we invented the flush toilet, and began the practice of using water to transport certain of our unwanted items away from us.  Disposing of material waste by dumping it on public land, and of floatable or soluble waste by washing it downhill in sewers has been going on a long time, and it has been an approach which has served us well.  Until we became numerous, living in high densities, and had to do something to process the waste before discarding it.  However, even the best tertiary treatment sewage plant ultimately dumps waste downstream, and while recycling can keep materials in use through multiple cycles, ultimately the products we consume end up being incinerated, or dumped in landfills, in water bodies, or by the side of the road.

These threads collide.  We value the Commons which is the environment that surrounds us but is not owned by us, but we use it as the repository of waste products, despoiling it in the process.  However there is one more thread to this story.  Because we live in societies in which items of value are owned, we conceive un-owned items lying about on the landscape as free for the taking.  This governs our attitudes to all natural resources, particularly those on crown or government land, and even underlies the laws governing salvage at sea.  And so we have the Commons.  It is valued passionately for the quality of life it affords in sunsets, mountaintops, star-lit skies, and endless open beaches, and perhaps also for the oxygen, food and water it provides us and for its capacity to process many of our waste products making them ecologically useful again.  But it is treated as available, at no cost, for any use including the dumping of wastes and the harvesting of natural resources.

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Sunset – free to enjoy, what is it really worth to us?

Every natural resource industry, fisheries, forestry, mining, has begun as a case of individuals obtaining raw materials to feed, clothe, house or in other ways sustain his or her family or tribe.  Items, whether fish, fur, timber or minerals, were gathered from the environment, used, and subsequently returned as wastes to the environment.  Commercialization meant that greater quantities were being harvested and more wastes returned, but, without exception, every natural resource industry commenced with the attitude that there was a right to gather items from the environment and a right to return wastes to it.  Globally there has been a long struggle within every natural resource industry, as its growth led to excess harvest and/or excess wastes being dumped.  In fisheries, for example, there are regulations governing right to enter the industry, regulations on amount, size range, where, and/or when during the year at which to catch, and policing mechanisms to keep participants reasonably honest.  This process of developing regulations has not been easy.  Many fisheries have crashed forever, while the industry struggles to learn how to bring sanity to its interactions with the ocean.  We still do not adequately value the fish swimming free, nor the cost of unsustainable harvest or of pollution of waterways, and even where we can calculate these values and costs, we struggle to invent mechanisms that will require the industry to pay these costs while accounting for values received as fish are landed.

A similar story can be told for forestry.  The forests of southern Europe were largely gone before appropriate policies were developed, and in much of the developing world, forest practices remain unsustainable while forest industries benefit from keeping these costs and benefits external.

And so I end at mining – an industry that used to leave small holes in the ground, but now terra-forms areas of landscape approaching the size of small countries.  Large-scale mining is dirty business, and it is a dirty business built on the value of ‘mineral reserves’.  Reserves are those unmined supplies of the mineral product that have become ‘owned’ by the mining company through the peculiarly simple process of ‘discovering’ them.  Once the claim is staked, reserves become assets of the company, assets against which it can borrow for the funds necessary to dig them up and sell them off.  Naturally, it is to the benefit of every mining company to accumulate a healthy portfolio of reserves, and to do the mining and processing as cheaply as possible.  While commercial mining has typically generated piles of mining waste, heavy metal pollution of waterways, and large tailings ponds full of water that is too toxic for even a mining company to release, modern large-scale, open-pit mining also scars the ground in ways that would be unimaginable to the old gold miner of yesteryear.  Why clean up the mess; the land does not really belong to anybody.

tar-sands-2-1000 Dodge Pembina

Syncrude tar sands operation.  Photo © David Dodge, Pembina Institute

Resource industries, like any industrial activity, also use energy, and large-scale resource industries use more energy.  Sometimes they use so much energy that the discard of wastes into the atmosphere becomes even more important than the discard of other wastes onto the land and waterways.  And nowhere is this more true than in Canada’s tar sands mining operations in Alberta.  Scenes of the devastation around these open-pit operations shout out loudly, “We are plundering the environment, despoiling it with our wastes, and even poisoning the atmosphere above”.  Sure, Canada’s tar sands operations contribute only a tiny amount to the global emissions of CO2, but they deliver an amount per barrel of oil that far exceeds that of any other form of oil production on this planet.  They also are polluting the Athabasca River drainage and the moon-scape they leave behind with a number of heavy metals that have known carcinogenic properties in ecosystems.  The cost of this pollution is being borne by Canadians, particularly those who live downstream, and the cost of the CO2 releases is being borne by the world.  The multinational oil corporations do not pay for the reserves they have discovered, and they do not pay for the pollution they cause.  They take their profits off-shore, and will continue to prosper until our thirst for oil ends.

Canada has no need for the tar-sands oil – we are self-sufficient in oil without it.  Canada could be self-sufficient in energy without using any fossil fuels (as could any country), and certainly could prosper without this messy industry.  It’s only the multi-national oil corporations that need this industry, and they will do everything they can to promote it, to expand it, to keep extracting until the last of the tar-sands oil has been extracted and sold.  And they can afford to keep our government happy with a few tax dollars, royalty checks, or short-term jobs.  Just as big tobacco waged a long war to keep the truth about cigarettes hushed up, they are investing in a long campaign to keep the public confused about climate risks, and believing in the essential Canadian-ness of their plundering.  Paddling my canoe on a quiet lake, I find it hard to see their actions as particularly Canadian.

The next time you enjoy a starry sky, or an open vista, ask yourself if you value the natural world.  Ask if you value those parts of the natural world that you do not own.  Ask whether it is worth our while, collectively, to fight to preserve this wonderful, natural world that sustains our lives.  And then ask whether it is well past time for us to stand up to fight for an approach to the Commons that is based on its recognized value for all of us, rather than one that sees the Commons as a larder to be pilfered for private gain.  As I said in several previous posts, Keystone XL and Northern Gateway are just symbols – symbols of the power of Big Oil to plunder the planet at no cost to itself, while governments hang about like so many lap dogs.

tar sands protest

Why does the USA have to lead Canada’s fight against building pipelines from the tar sands? 

Photo © Tar Sands Action

Categories: Canada's environmental policies, Climate change, Economics, Fisheries, In the News, Land Use, Tar Sands | 4 Comments

Canadian environmental science… possibly some good news for the ELA

ELA John ShearerPhoto © John Shearer

Two days ago the Experimental Lakes Area, that unique, world-class research facility in north-western Ontario was dead in the water.  Our Harper Government had decided they would close it to save money (no doubt money used to fund the Washington charm offensive re Keystone XL – ethical oil indeed).

Alison Redford Keegan Bersaw Embassy of CanadaharperAlison Redford and Stephen Harper talking up ethical oil to their US hosts – such sincerity.  Photos by Keegan Bersaw/Embassy of Canada, and Susan Walsh/Associated Press.

And close it they did.  But at the last minute, Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario has ridden to the rescue. “The ELA is very important to us as a government that believes in science, that believes in evidence,” the Premier said, while specifically mentioning its recent research on climate change – something that others have suggested might have been behind its closure.  The plan is for Ontario and Manitoba to help fund, while the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) would become the new operator.  IISD is a non-governmental research institute funded by Canada and Manitoba, and based in Winnipeg.  Scott Vaughan, President and CEO of IISD responded to Wynne’s announcement saying, “Premier Wynne’s commitment to the ELA is an important step, and we look forward to working with the province and the federal government on a plan that enables IISD to take over the operations of this extraordinary facility.”  Not sure if we should picture Premier Wynne as Lady Godiva or Jeanne d”Arc.  Nor do I really care.  This is a rare good week for environmental science in Canada.

GE DIGITAL CAMERAKathleen Wynne to the rescue?

Nothing is certain yet.  The Manitoba government has yet to commit, and the Harper Government seems unlikely to do anything much to help, although Fisheries and Oceans Minister Keith Ashfield said that Ottawa “welcome[s] Ontario’s willingness to play an active role,” but stressed that “the Federal Government has been leading negotiations with third parties in order to secure a new operator for the Experimental Lakes Area.”  Does this mean we should thank the Harper Government for Ontario’s decision?  At least Harper’s petty rush to dismantle buildings at the facility seems to have been suspended.  There is of course no sign whatever that any senior member of the Harper Government is having second thoughts about the initial decision.  They are much too busy continuing to be responsible managers of Canada’s economy as it muddles along, building its deficit, exporting its jobs, digging in its tar sands.

Categories: Canada's environmental policies, Economics, In the News, Tar Sands | 1 Comment

Honesty, Integrity, and Transparency Stuck in the Tar Sands – Canada’s Failed Science Policy

Kent and McQueen vancouver sunPhoto from Vancouver Sun

Yesterday was Earth Day.  Peter Kent, Minister of Environment in the Harper Government teamed up with Diana McQueen, Alberta’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Resource Development to announce the launch of a “New Online Portal for Accessing Oil Sands Environmental Monitoring Data and Information from the Oil Sands”.  It is at www.JointOilSandsMonitoring.ca, and it looks quite pretty with a series of evocative photos at the top and not too much text per page.  The press release claims Peter Kent said, “”Today, as the world celebrates Earth Day and showcases commitments to protecting the environment, Canada is contributing and doing our part, by delivering on our collective promise to ensure that scientific data from the monitoring activity is transparent and accessible. With this portal, our respective governments are actively encouraging informed discussions and analysis on the impacts of oil sands development.”

And tag-teaming all the way, Diana McQueen said, “Alberta is proud to co-lead the development and implementation of this world-class, science-based monitoring program for the oil sands.  By openly reporting on our data and our progress, we are ensuring the rest of the world recognizes our commitment to responsible and sustainable resource development.”

Indeed, if one visits the site, and delves a couple of pages down, one can discover whole spreadsheets of raw, unfiltered data.  But what exactly does all this really mean?  I went in through the ‘latest data’ page and ‘water latest data’ and downloaded the PAH data for 2011 and 2012.  The file gives no outward hint of its origin bearing a front page with two images carrying a disclaimer that these are essentially raw data, and detailing the meaning of certain codes.  The disclaimer (barely legible) reports that the data have been made available as soon as they were received from “the laboratory”, that they have been verified and validated according to Environment Canada procedures, and that they may get further correction before being recorded in Environment Canada’s authoritative ACBIS database.  This all sounds like standard procedure except that there is nowhere an identification of the laboratory or the scientist responsible.  Using the Excel file information page, I found that someone called Nancy Glozier was the file’s author and that the file originated from Environment Canada.  You know how reliable these information pages are if you have ever messed around with MS Office files.  Anyway I googled Nancy Glozier and confirmed she is a scientist at Environment Canada’s PNR Wildlife Research Centre in Saskatoon.  An attempt to find out more was not rewarding and the most recent peer-reviewed paper I could find by her was one in 2005 in which she was the fourth of six authors (Science of the Total Environment 343 (2005) 135– 154).  Fittingly, this article concerned effects of mining effluent on fish.  [A few hours after I posted this, a friend contacted me to advise he knew Nancy, that she was now retired from Environment Canada, and that he had heard her on CBC speaking out against the Harper Government's science agenda -- sounds like she is a real scientist, to me.]

tar-sands-2-1000 Dodge Pembina

Didn’t find this on the new Canada-Alberta website!  Photo © David Dodge, Pembina Institute

Normally, I would conclude that these are real data from Dr. Glozier’s lab, and they probably are.  But I cannot be certain.  Because this is a Harper government performance, not the usual way in which science is done.

This joint website is notable for not being affiliated in any way with either the federal or the provincial environmental science department led by the respective ministers.  It is not even a gc.ca website, although each page includes a ‘terms and conditions’ statement and a ‘license agreement’ both of which confirm that the federal government takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the data nor for how they may be used.  Scientists are invisible, not even mentioned, and the data available are more a wikileak dump than an orderly delivery of science information by scientists.  This is not the usual way that science is conveyed to the public.

Our world contains a number of quite fragile entities.  Beyond the physically fragile snowflakes, eggshells, and gossamer there are honesty, integrity, and transparency.  The process of science requires all three of these because science depends on the progressive communal effort to build one new discovery on top of another, and it is too easy to cheat.  Scientists have to have reasonable confidence in the honesty and integrity of each other or the system cannot work.

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Science depends on the fragility of honesty, integrity and transparency.  Photo © *Starykokur

At its most basic level, science proceeds when a scientist develops a new hypothesis and devises an experiment, or a series of observations to test the correctness of that hypothesis.  She or he collects data during those observations or experiment, and the data permit a test of the hypothesis.  Typically, the data, or analyses of them, are part of the written report the scientist produces, and are the basis on which he or she draws conclusions.  Other scientists read the report, hear a presentation of the results, or discuss the research with the scientist and accept or raise questions concerning the conclusions reached and the approach taken.  Science moves forward step by baby step.  But all of this interaction within the science community fundamentally depends on the assumption by all involved that every scientist is seeking to obtain the most accurate data and to use them to the best of his or her ability to draw statistically and logically valid conclusions.  Rarely is a scientist scrutinized by a jury while collecting or evaluating data; peer review steps in at the time of publication and peer reviewers have to begin with the assumption that the data reported are indeed the data that were obtained.  As anyone who has ever handled an Excel file knows, you can alter a number and resave the file and it looks as pristine as ever. Some scientists have fudged data, created data, or stolen other people’s data and/or evaluations – the beautiful paradox of the global science effort is that cases of such cheating have been very rare indeed.  Scientists tend to be far more honest, conscientious, careful, even fastidious about the collection and evaluation of data than we have any reason to suspect.  They get their recognition and rewards by being so, and by hard work, not by cheating the system.

I have no doubt that Nancy Glozier and other Environment Canada scientists have the same high standards as other members of the science community, but the Harper Government over the last several years has been systematically destroying Canada’s capacity to do science and the ability of government scientists to convey their science to the wider science community and the public.  Now, apparently in fear that the Keystone XL pipeline may not get approval in the US, this government is teaming up with the Alberta government to portray Canada as a normal, responsible democracy with both the capacity and the willingness to protect the environment from the effects of tar sands mining.  I fear that the damage they already have done dooms this attempt to appear active, honest, and open.

We are repeatedly told that Canada “is halfway to achieving its 2020 commitment on reducing GHG emissions” when the reality is that we have made scarcely any progress since first signing Kyoto and are heading for a mammoth failure.  We are told that the systematic removal of environmental safeguards buried in a series of omnibus budget bills is a matter of improving efficiency, eliminating wasteful duplication, and removing obstacles that unjustifiably impede the progress of the oil and gas industry.  Yes they have removed obstacles, but those obstacles are there for a reason – to prevent multinational corporations running roughshod over our environment.  But our Harper Government responded to pressure from the multinationals to ease their road.  We are told that it is important for Canada that science results be accurately reported in the media, and this laudable goal is then used to justify the muzzling of federal scientists, the very people who are in the best position to present the results of their own research accurately to the media.  Instead, interviews are to be managed by public relations or communications experts.  There have even been recent attempts to muzzle non-federal and foreign scientists who are collaborating with Federal experts.  As a Canadian scientist, it is embarrassing to see this blatant silencing of our Federal scientists reported on in the pages of Science or Nature, the premier science weeklies.  We have been told that the Experimental Lakes Region (ELA) is no longer needed, and that ceasing to support it after 40 successful years was a cost-saving, efficiency measure, but Canada is now entering a period of substantial climate change while faced with a number of other environmental stressors and the science community has been firmly of the opinion that the ELA is definitely needed now and in the future, and impossible to replace.  That it is unique worldwide, and has generated research that has led to major international policy with respect to environment seems by the way to the Harper Government.  All the time these mistruths have been advanced by Harper Government spokesmen, downsizing of the Federal science agencies has been chewing away at their capacity to do the science, let alone report it to the world.

When a government has built a solid track record of reducing scientific capacity in so many different ways over so many years, when it has made it obvious that the less access scientists have to the media or the public the better, when it has made it even more obvious that the political message of the day trumps real scientific data or understanding, it becomes difficult to suddenly become scientifically responsible.  The new website, divorced as it is from the scientists who generated the data, is a political instrument.  It is intended to deflect criticism that in my opinion is fully justified.  This Harper Government has decided that helping the multinational corporations grow the tar sands industry as rapidly as possible is the best way to keep Canada’s economy strong.  It has decided that a little bit of environmental damage can be ignored, that environmental scientists can safely be ignored most of the time, and that environmental activists are only foreign-supported radicals and traitors anyway.  Now, seeing Keystone XL at risk, worrying about Northern Gateway and growing opposition to other pipeline developments in Canada, watching our national deficit grow, and fearing for its own longevity, the Harper Government is undertaking a greenwashing exercise of epic proportion.  Are the data on the site accurate?  Probably.  Are they complete?  Perhaps.  Do I have any confidence in them, or in the claim on the website that “Overall, the levels of contaminants in water and in air are not a cause for concern”?  Not any more confidence than I have in any other political statement on environment by the Harper Government.  This is another sad day for Canada – this government may now be incapable of becoming responsible with respect to environmental science.

Categories: Canada's environmental policies, In the News, Tar Sands | Leave a comment